According to a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) Real Estate Investor Survey of commercial real estate sectors and markets, Nashville is projected to be one of the top-three performing retail markets in the U.S. through 2012.
The other two markets are Long Island and Fairfield County, Connecticut.
For the retail market, inconsistent consumer spending and inflationary fears will keep the majority of retail stock (76.6 percent) in recession through 2012. A recovery will materialize by year-end 2013, with 77.1 percent of retail inventory in that phase. Individual retail markets that are expected to perform better than this sector as a whole include Long Island, Nashville, and Fairfield County, which are each expected to be in recovery through 2012.
A Southeast Venture survey conducted at the beginning of 2011, predicted similar, yet more muted trends. Of the 80 local and regional commercial real estate brokers, developers, building owners and investors that we polled, 66 percent expected the retail market to perform better in 2011 than 2010. Interestingly, the multifamily and office markets were both polled to perform stronger than the retail market, with 75 percent (multifamily) and 72 percent (office) of responders predicting a stronger 2011.
Additional highlights from the PwC survey include:
- Due to a lack of supply and decreasing vacancy, most office stock will be in recovery by the end of 2011. The office markets in Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angles and Tampa are supposed to perform below trend.
- Up to 86.2% of industrial stock is supposed to be in recovery in 2011 and 2012, with growth expected in 2013 and 2014. Again the Tampa market will lag behind, this time joined by Akron, Cleveland and Minneapolis.
- Driven by tight lending and pent-up demand, the PwC Barometer expects the multifamily sector to perform the best with a portion of multifamily stock expanding through 2014. In this sector New Orleans and Syracuse are expected to perform below trend.