Tag Archives: lending

Sectors Outlook

2011 Middle Tennessee Commercial Real Estate Survey

(third of three posts)

This is our last post detailing the results of our CRE survey. Responders were asked to predict how each sector of Middle Tennessee commercial real estate will preform in 2011 compared to 2010.

Within the sectors, multi-family (75%), office (72%), retail (66%) and industrial (53%) are expected to perform better, while land (75%) and real estate owned (52%) are expected to perform the same or worse this year.

The survey also asked responders to describe the best thing that could happen in 2011 to strengthen Middle Tennessee’s commercial real estate market. Responders hoped most for the relocation of new business to the area (26%), corresponding job creation and stability (21%) and the availability of lending (20%).

Check out the Sales Outlook.

Check out the Leasing Outlook.

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Leasing Outlook

2011 Middle Tennessee Commercial Real Estate Survey

(second of three posts)

This is the second entry that outlines the results of a survey that we conducted of local and regional commercial real estate brokers, developers, building owners and investors. The survey asked responders to assess the mood of the marketplace in three categories: sales, leasing and sectors.

The first post talked about sales, this post will focus on leasing.

Commercial leasing polled almost as well as sales, with 74% of responders indicating that leasing will be better and 5% expecting leasing to be much better. 20% claimed no change, and 1% expects leasing to be worse this year.

Built up demand topped the list of reasons for improved leasing, followed by the strengthening economy, increased tenant and landlord confidence and a positive trend during the second half of 2010.

Those who answered that leasing will fare the ‘same’ or ‘worse’ were split equally on their reasoning, indicating weak retail and office sectors, sluggish demand, tight lending and depressed confidence.

Sales Outlook

2011 Middle Tennessee Commercial Real Estate Survey

(first of three posts)

Back in January, we conducted a survey of local and regional commercial real estate brokers, developers, building owners and investors. The survey asked responders to assess the mood of the marketplace in three categories: sales, leasing and sectors.

I am going to present the survey results here, in a series of three posts, beginning with the first category: Sales.

Of the 80 responders, 78% believe that sales of Middle Tennessee commercial real estate will be better in 2011, with another 9% indicating that sales will be ‘much better.’ 14% expect 2011 sales to be stagnant. No one predicted that 2011 sales will be worse than 2010.

An easing in lending and financing is the top reason cited for the optimistic sales outlook. Other reasons include a positive trend during the second half of 2010, a strengthening economy and increased consumer confidence. Unresolved long-term lending problems were the primary concern among responders.

The Good. The Bad. The Ugly. Nashville’s 2011 CRE Outlook

At the Dec. 9 Business Outlook Summit, co-hosted by the Nashville Chamber and ULI Nashville, the Urban Land Institute outlined its predictions for CRE in 2011.

ULI’s “2011 Emerging Trends in Real Estate” report provides a muted outlook for CRE, but some interesting takeaways for the Nashville market. The Nashville Business Journal sums up the general CRE outlook here.

I think that if the ULI used a “good/bad/ugly scale” for its report’s abstract, it would read something like this:

The good: land acquisition, long-term lending

The bad: employment

The ugly: retail, long-term debt

The fact that long-term lending is touted as a good thing, while long-term debt is described as a bad thing is a conundrum to me: Doesn’t one cause the other?

One thing that was mentioned on the positive side of the CRE balance sheet was that Nashville’s 2011 outlook ranks first among southern cities, ahead of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham. That’s great considering that Nashville only ranks 13 in population compared to other southern cities.

I’ll take a #1 outlook any day.